December’s data from six of the nation’s leading monthly market reports paint a picture of extraordinary demand that has made inadequate supplies of homes for sale even more dangerous by driving up prices above sustainable levels in some markets.
Inventories remain critically low. Beyond the numbers, which feature annual double-digit inventory declines in four of the six reports, many reports issued extraordinary alarms. Some reported new listings as well as current active listings.
December’s sales were virtually unchanged from last year. However, the combination of an improving economy, low rates and the coming-of-age of the millennials contributed to a banner year for sales in 2016.
Several sources, including Trulia and the National Association of Realtors, anticipate that 2016 sales totals will set multi-year records.
A regional sea change is underway in housing recovery. The first markets to feel the combination of short supplies and strong demand saw prices and sales soar.
Now, in the Midwest and Northeast, the same dynamics that lit up Western markets two years ago are kicking in.
The Inventory Crisis Continues
The real estate economy in 2016 broke records as well as hearts.
As soaring values left homeowners with more equity than they’ve seen in a decade, there’s not much good news in store for thousands of frustrated buyers who couldn’t find a home to buy last year.
While equity levels are finally recovering for long-suffering owners, buyers struggle with an affordability crisis driven by the double-whammy of strengthening demand and declining supply. Double-digit inventory shortfalls reported by most sources as the year ends a wake-up call for 2017.
Now in its third full year, the housing recovery is washing over the nation like a tsunami, draining West Coast markets of middle-class neighborhoods that middle-class buyers can afford. Now it is lifting Midwestern and Northeastern markets, which have languished for years, turning them into the sellers’ markets of the year to come.
The several monthly “national” market reports issued by brokerages, aggregators, researchers and franchisors use different data, analytical techniques and emphasize different facets of the same economic forces at work. When analyzed and compared, their similarities reinforce their findings and their different focuses enrich our understanding of the significant trends shaping markets.
This review of December market reports from the National Association of Realtors’ Existing Home Sales series, realtor.com, Redfin, Re/Max, Trulia and Zillow was limited to national reports released within January.
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